XRP Surges 8% as Historical Holder Losses Suggest Contrarian Opportunity
XRP has increased by 8% as on-chain data indicates that holders are experiencing unprecedented unrealized losses, according to CoinDesk. Analytics firm Santiment notes that this capitulation phase might present a valuable entry point for new buyers despite potential market volatility.
XRP has seen an increase of approximately 8% over the past week, reaching around $1.14. This rise comes as on-chain data reveals that XRP holders are enduring record unrealized losses. Specifically, the 30-day and 365-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratios are hovering near -45% and -47%, respectively, indicating that many recent and long-term buyers are significantly underwater.
The MVRV ratio, which compares the current price of an asset to the average price at which it last moved, suggests that XRP holders have never experienced such deep losses historically. According to analytics firm Santiment, this capitulation phase occurs when the majority of investors face substantial losses, often leading to weaker holders selling off their assets to those who are willing to absorb the coins. Santiment underscores that this situation does not guarantee a price increase for XRP, as broader market trends may still affect its performance.
Santiment highlights that “the best setups often appear when the crowd is feeling maximum pain,” indicating that with much of the downside already realized, the risk associated with buying now might be lower than usual. Nevertheless, it is also noted that the potential for further declines exists if the overall market weakens. Despite the adverse MVRV readings, the uptick in XRP's price signals that selling pressure from underwater holders may be waning, with traders closely monitoring if new buyers will continue to enter the market.
The current state of XRP fits a pattern observed by on-chain analysts who note large bitcoin wallets accumulating during record ETF outflows. While this capitulation and absorption setup is typically seen near market cycle lows, it does not definitively mark a bottom for XRP or suggest that prices will immediately recover. With conditions still in a state of flux, analysts caution that while the MVRV data points to an exhausted selling phase, market participants should stay alert to any shifts in buyer behavior moving forward.
Summary based on original reporting by Shaurya Malwa at CoinDesk, originally published Jul 4, 2026. SolanaWire does not republish source content.
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