William Blair Maintains Outperform Rating Despite Coinbase's Revenue Cuts
William Blair reduces Coinbase's 2026 EBITDA estimates by 34% but keeps an 'outperform' rating, citing that key risks are already factored in. Analysts suggest both Coinbase and Circle stocks may rebound as investor sentiment stabilizes, according to Decrypt.
Analysts from William Blair recently slashed their earnings estimates for Coinbase, cutting 2026 and 2027 EBITDA projections by 34% and reducing revenue forecasts by 12-13%. Despite these significant adjustments, the analysts maintained an "outperform" rating on the company's stock, suggesting that the negative impacts are already reflected in current prices.
Coinbase shares experienced a modest rise of 3-4% following the announcement, as the firm asserts that the primary risks are now priced in. The firm believes that earnings are expected to bottom out by the end of 2026 before a possible recovery in 2027. Analysts Andrew Jeffrey and Adib Choudhury predict that the total trading volume for Coinbase will drop approximately 44% in 2026, amounting to around $669 billion, but are optimistic about a rebound of over 32% by 2027.
According to Jeffrey and Choudhury, various structural changes within the market set this cycle apart from previous downturns. For instance, the introduction of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the increase in institutional investment, and a more mature regulatory environment all contribute to a more favorable outlook for Coinbase. They also highlighted the potential of Coinbase's Base layer-2 network, along with growth in retail derivatives and prediction markets as important earnings drivers.
"We think investors should stay involved in Coinbase," William Blair stated in its report. The firm noted that retail derivatives alone generated over $200 million in annualized revenue during the first quarter, indicating a revenue base that extends beyond spot trading.
However, not all analysts share this positive outlook. Piper Sandler's Patrick Moley recently adjusted his price target downward, reflecting a more cautious stance on the immediate prospects for Coinbase compared to William Blair’s more optimistic analysis.
As the market continues to evaluate Coinbase's performance, key signals to watch include the overall trading volume and the developments surrounding cryptocurrency ETFs, as these could significantly influence investor sentiment and market stability.
Summary based on original reporting by Jose Antonio Lanz at Decrypt, originally published Jul 15, 2026. SolanaWire does not republish source content.
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