SpaceX's SPCX Contract Rebounds, Implied Valuation Rises to $2.4 Trillion

On June 12, 2026, the SpaceX-linked perpetual contract known as SPCX, traded on the crypto exchange Hyperliquid, saw its price jump to about $176 to $183 after hitting a low of around $153 earlier in the week. The SPCX contract now shows an implied premium of approximately 36% over SpaceX’s scheduled IPO price of $135 per share, an increase from just around 16% earlier in the week.

Contracts such as SPCX give traders insight into market expectations, despite not representing actual ownership in SpaceX. The uptick follows a trend where the implied first-day premium had been decreasing, suggesting that traders were initially cautious about SpaceX's market debut. The recent rise indicates a closing of that discount, reflecting renewed confidence in the expected performance of the IPO.

Moreover, reports from shadow markets including IG International derivatives reveal that the implied valuation of SpaceX has risen to about $2.4 trillion. This marks an increase of over 35% from the IPO price, indicating strong market sentiment surrounding the company’s debut. Similarly, traders on Polymarket are estimating a 70% probability that SpaceX will close its first trading day above $2 trillion.

The market dynamics of SPCX, with open interest around $216 million and 24-hour trading volume exceeding $150 million, highlight significant trading activity leading up to the IPO. Despite its construction as a cash-settled derivative, SPCX remains one of the few ongoing indicators of market sentiment regarding the valuation of the SpaceX IPO.

As the market continues to react to these shifts, observers should monitor the SPCX trading behavior and how it reflects broader investor sentiment as SpaceX prepares for its high-profile market introduction.