Solidus Labs Finds Small Group Dominates Profits on Polymarket

A new analysis by Solidus Labs uncovers a significant concentration of profits within Polymarket, a platform for political prediction markets. Between December 2025 and February 2026, fewer than 1% of wallets accounted for approximately half of the profits, with just 0.55% of profitable maker wallets and 0.26% of winning taker wallets each taking home around $8 million out of a total of $16 million in profits.

This stark imbalance points to a pronounced divide in the market, where a small group of well-capitalized traders consistently outperforms the broader user base. Historical data, including a comparison with research from the London Business School and Yale, reinforces the idea that a tiny fraction of traders is responsible for most price movements on Polymarket. However, the report suggests that high profitability does not necessarily imply misconduct. Many successful traders may simply be more sophisticated, better capitalized, or quicker to act on new information.

Moreover, the report by Solidus Labs indicates signs of wash trading, identifying that around 15% of the trading volume in certain markets shows patterns consistent with self-trading. This behavior can involve traders constructing seemingly neutral positions in outcome tokens, although Solidus points out that such strategies have no direct equivalent in traditional financial markets. Speculation also arises around Polymarket's anticipated $POLY token airdrop, which may incentivize trading volume as a reward metric.

It’s important to note that Solidus, the report’s publisher, offers the HALO market surveillance platform used in their analysis. This raises questions about the neutrality of their findings, as the firm stands to benefit from promoting a need for surveillance on prediction markets.

Key Takeaways

• Fewer than 1% of wallets are capturing half of the profits on Polymarket, indicating significant profit concentration.
• Data suggests a structural divide between highly successful use cases and the wider base of users engaging with the platform.
• Concerns about wash trading and trading strategy manipulation highlight the complexity of market dynamics in prediction markets.

As the landscape evolves, observers will want to monitor how Polymarket responds to these findings and whether any measures are put into place to address the pronounced concentration of profits.