Kraken Reports Historic Bitcoin Returns Below 200-Week Moving Average
A recent report from Kraken notes that purchasing Bitcoin below its 200-week moving average has led to over 100% median returns historically. The analysis, detailed by CoinDesk, highlights that this phenomenon has occurred rarely since mid-2017 and suggests it may provide a compelling buying opportunity.
According to cryptocurrency exchange Kraken, buying Bitcoin below its 200-week moving average (SMA) has historically resulted in returns exceeding 100% over a year. Bitcoin recently dipped below its 200-week SMA of $62,358 twice within two weeks, which Kraken's Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo identifies as potential strong entry points for investors.
As of the report, Bitcoin trades around $63,900, just above the 200-week SMA. Perfumo indicates that closings under this SMA are rare, appearing on only about 10% of trading days since mid-2017, and have historically presented significant buying opportunities. He states, "Historically, buyers at this level have gone on to see median returns north of 113% over the following year and 313% over two years." This median return figure reflects the middle performance across various buying instances below the 200-week SMA.
Further analysis shows that investors who purchase Bitcoin at these lower levels usually break even within just two days. Additionally, the maximum drawdown for these investments has been limited to a median of 9% within the following year. Perfumo cautions that while such historical trends are promising, "past performance is no guarantee of future results. But the historical record makes a clear case: at these levels, Bitcoin has tended to offer immense value."
This data could imply that current market conditions might be favorable for new investments, especially for traders who view Bitcoin dips as short-term opportunities. As Bitcoin continues to hover around its 200-week SMA, observers may closely watch its price movements for potential signs of future performance.
Summary based on original reporting by Omkar Godbole at CoinDesk, originally published Jun 18, 2026. SolanaWire does not republish source content.
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