Clarity Act Odds Rise After Trump Reported Ethics Deal
Polymarket traders have moved the odds of the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026 to 43% following unverified reports that President Trump accepted an ethics provision that had delayed the bill, according to CoinDesk. This significant increase comes after the odds dropped to a record low last week, yet no official text of the bill has been made available.
On July 21, 2026, the predicted likelihood of the Clarity Act, which aims to create a comprehensive federal framework for digital assets, rose to approximately 43% on the prediction market Polymarket. This increase follows reports suggesting that President Trump has agreed to an ethics provision that had stalled progress on the bill. Last week, the odds had plummeted to 32%, marking a record low since the start of Polymarket trading in January.
The ethics provision has been a major sticking point in the negotiations, particularly concerning how much profit political figures can generate from cryptocurrency while in office. This issue has received increased scrutiny due to Trump’s involvement with memecoins and his family’s financial interests in World Liberty Financial.
Reports indicate that the ethics provision was discussed at a meeting on July 16, attended by Trump, Republican Senators Bernie Moreno and Cynthia Lummis, and White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt. However, as of now, there has been no confirmation from Democrats regarding seeing the official text of the bill, and the White House and involved senators have not made any comments.
Following the reports, major cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP experienced gains, attributed largely to emerging trends in AI and semiconductor stocks rather than legislative updates. On the same day, Bitcoin traded near $66,300, reflecting a rise of about 3% in 24 hours, while Ethereum and XRP saw increases of approximately 4%.
The Senate is expected to vote on the Clarity Act by early August. Market participants remain cautious, anticipating how the ongoing dynamics within the political landscape will influence the bill’s outcome. As observers continue to monitor these developments, traders remain active in assessing the impact of political agreements on cryptocurrency markets.
Summary based on original reporting by Shaurya Malwa at CoinDesk, originally published Jul 21, 2026. SolanaWire does not republish source content.
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