CFTC Proposes Ban on Prediction Markets Related to Ousting Foreign Leaders

On June 10, 2026, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) proposed a set of regulations that would significantly impact the functioning of prediction markets. The new rules suggest banning wagers on events tied to war or assassination where such outcomes might influence the removal of political leaders from office.

The proposed rules would explicitly prohibit markets concerning the timeline for political figures being ousted if the means to that end involves violent scenarios. For instance, wagers about foreign leaders such as Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei or Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro ceasing to hold office would fall under this restriction. These types of markets could only legally resolve under specific circumstances, including electoral defeat or constitutional removal, thereby excluding scenarios involving conflict or violence.

Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have faced scrutiny as they've previously offered markets that permitted bets on the ousting of leaders without directly referencing violence. These kinds of markets have generated significant interest and considerable trading volumes. For example, one Polymarket wager on Iran's leadership has recorded over $14 million in trades, indicating a robust interest in political prediction markets.

The proposed regulations would currently enter a 45-day public comment period, providing stakeholders the opportunity to voice opinions regarding these measures. The CFTC aims to address the ethical concerns inherent in allowing bets on the potential assassination or conflict-related ousting of foreign leaders.

As the public comment period unfolds, the implications of these regulatory changes will become clearer. Key questions include how these rules will impact existing markets and whether platforms can effectively adapt to the new legal landscape regarding prediction wagers.