Bitcoin Reaches $65K Following US-Iran Deal Amidst Trader Skepticism

Bitcoin has climbed to approximately $65,860, marking an increase of 2.2% over the last 24 hours and 4% in the past week. This rise follows President Trump’s announcement of a deal with Iran, in which he authorized the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the removal of a U.S. naval blockade.

Despite the bullish reaction, analysts express caution. Over $4.8 billion has withdrawn from U.S. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) since May, highlighting a lack of institutional interest. Additionally, the 25-delta options skew remains negative, suggesting traders are still prioritizing downside protection over potential gains.

Markus Levin, Co-Founder of XYO, notes that a genuine market turnaround is unlikely until the deal is officially signed in Switzerland. He mentions, "The relief rally in Bitcoin has already partially arrived, recovering much of the geopolitical risk premium from recent weeks." Furthermore, Georgii Verbitskii, a derivatives trader, believes the cryptocurrency market has largely absorbed negative news, indicating a shift in sentiment.

However, prediction markets reflect bearish sentiment on Bitcoin's future performance. Users on Myriad predict a 67% chance that Bitcoin could drop to $55,000, while Kalshi expects it to finish the year at $69,000—down significantly from its peak of $126,080 in October 2025. Levin emphasizes that the U.S.-Iran agreement does not resolve the ongoing issue of insufficient institutional demand, stating, "A peace deal alone does not bring that capital back." This skepticism is critical, given past experiences where positive news has not led to sustained market rallies.