Bitcoin May Drop to $44,000 by Year-End, Says Miner Jiang Zhuoer
Prominent Chinese bitcoin miner Jiang Zhuoer predicts that bitcoin could decline further, reaching between $42,000 and $44,000 by the end of 2026. His analysis is based on market net asset value metrics, as reported by CoinDesk.
Jiang Zhuoer, a well-known bitcoin miner and founder of the LeBit mining pool, projects that bitcoin's price could reach as low as $44,000 by the end of 2026, which marks a potential 30% decline from its current price of approximately $60,700. This outlook stems from the analysis of Strategy’s market net asset value (mNAV), which Jiang states has fallen to 0.72, a historical indicator of price bottoms in prior cycles.
The mNAV, which compares Strategy’s stock price to the per-share value of the bitcoin it holds, suggests a market valuation of the company that is almost 28% lower than the value of its bitcoin holdings. Jiang emphasizes the significance of this metric, noting it is similar to the level reached during previous market cycles before the price bottom. He argues that this portends a potential low for bitcoin around late 2026.
Historically, bitcoin bottoms around six months after the mNAV reaches a low point, according to Jiang. Applying the same timing, he suggests that the price of bitcoin could be around $15,500 six months after a similar market signal appeared in May 2022.
Moreover, Jiang’s predictions align with current bearish indicators, such as bitcoin trading around its 200-week moving average, a threshold that has preceded extended periods of price weakness in previous cycles. Additionally, recent market conditions have seen a scaling back of the debasement trade, which previously bolstered bitcoin alongside gold and silver.
While Jiang’s forecasts are based on a four-year cycle model, which assumes diminishing volatility in bitcoin's price over time, other analysts have raised concerns about Strategy's aggressive investment with bitcoin. They call for the company to pause its purchases, citing potential overextension.
Investors and market watchers will need to monitor the developments surrounding Strategy’s mNAV and broader market sentiment as they could provide cues for future price movements. Jiang’s work highlights the intertwined nature of corporate health within the cryptocurrency ecosystem and the price of asset classes like bitcoin.
Summary based on original reporting by Shaurya Malwa at CoinDesk, originally published Jun 25, 2026. SolanaWire does not republish source content.
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