Bernstein Sees Bitcoin Price Target of $150K Amid Declining Interest

Bernstein's Global Digital Assets team reports that Bitcoin has dropped about 27% in 2026, amidst weak inflows and a shift in retail investor focus towards artificial intelligence (AI) stocks. Analyzing this trend, Bernstein maintains that the drop in retail engagement should not be viewed as a sign of a dying asset but rather as evidence of maturation within the Bitcoin market.

Year-to-date, net inflows into Bitcoin have decreased significantly, falling to around $12 billion compared to $60 billion across all of 2025, which represents a decline of 80%. Furthermore, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen net outflows of $2.6 billion for a total asset base of $75 billion. Despite these figures, Bernstein interprets this retreat as a positive shift, noting that Bitcoin's holder base is increasingly composed of institutional investors, pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, and corporate treasury buyers.

Notably, Strategy, a company known for accumulating Bitcoin, has continued to grow its holdings despite market challenges. The firm raised $7.5 billion through a preferred stock instrument this year, using the funds to acquire approximately 100,000 Bitcoin. Currently, Strategy holds over 845,000 Bitcoin, valued at around $53.6 billion.

The overall cryptocurrency market capitalization stands at about $2.25 trillion, which is relatively small compared to global equities and commodity markets—areas where investors are predominantly focusing this cycle. Additionally, several Bitcoin mining companies, including IREN and Cipher Digital, have adapted by pivoting towards AI data centers, leading to substantial gains.

Despite Bitcoin trading just above $63,000—down nearly 50% from its October peak—Bernstein asserts a continued potential for recovery with a target price of $150,000 by year-end, which would establish a new all-time high for the cryptocurrency.